Sunshine's 2023 Oscar Predictions
2023 Oscars Predictions
The awards cycle ends this weekend with the 95th Academy Awards, airing on Sunday at 8:00 pm on ABC. Whether you fill out a ballot or not, here are my predictions on who I think will be taking home the Oscar.
Best Sound
Who I Want to Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Who I Think Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Out of the movies nominated for this category, ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ was certainly my favorite but ultimately I don’t have a strong opinion on who takes home this award. This really is a toss-up. The sound category for the last 10 years has gone to movies about war, music, and fast vehicles and all of the nominees fall into that category but the engineers on Top Gun Maverick have pulled in several awards already and so maybe there is one more to go.
Best Costume Design
Who I Want to Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Who I Think Will Win: Elvis
Ruth Carter won for Black Panther and just the sheer amount of Costumes along with the attention to cultural details makes her my clear choice for this category. However, the academy still skews white, older, and male and for that reason I see them going with a different choice. ‘Wakanda Forever’ has won more costuming awards this year but Elvis isn’t far behind as the category seems to be split between the two options, but The Academy loves its musical biopics and due to the iconic nature of the subject matter, I feel voters will lean in this direction…unfortunately.
Best Cinematography
Who I Want to Win: Tár
Who I Think Will Win: Tár
It is absolutely mind-blowing to me that Top Gun: Maverick wasn’t nominated for this category as it’s picked up more Cinematography awards this season than any other movie but out of the 5 films nominated, Florian Hoffmeister’s photography has been my favorite. Not only is this my personal choice, but out of the nominees Hoffmeister has taken home the most wins in this category this award season and is the likely favorite.
Best Production Design
Who I Want to Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Who I Think Will Win: Babylon
I think the setting of AQOTWF is a major reason why that film works so well but The Academy loves its movies about movies and though The Fabelmans is also nominated, Babylon seems to be taking this category the most this award season.
Best Short Film, Animated
Who I Want to Win: Ice Merchants
Who I Think Will Win: Ice Merchants
Not only is ‘Ice Merchants’ a stunning viewing experience but it’s the most decorated out of the other nominees in this absolutely stacked category. All of the animated short films are worth watching but I place my bet on this story from João Gonzalez.
Best Visual Effects
Who I Want to Win: Avatar The Way of Water
Who I Think Will Win: Avatar The Way of Water
This one feels like a no-brainer but you can never say anything is for sure when it comes to The Academy Awards. Everyone thought Saving Private Ryan was a shoe-in for Best Picture and then here comes Shakespear In Love, remember? But Avatar The Way of Water has been cleaning up the visual technicals all season long and it’s the most likely choice.
Best Film Editing
Who I Want to Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Who I Think Will Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Withouth the precision in editing, EEAAO doesn’t work nearly as well and the ability to move through so many multiverses with such ease without becoming a visual mess is no easy feat. There is a chance that Elvis maybe pulls the win but I think it’s a small one.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Who I Want to Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Who I Think Will Win: Elvis
It’s annoying that majority of the nominees for this category are getting recognition for putting chisled actors into fat suits. All Quiet on the Western Front not only avoids that trope but uses makeup to truly elevate the film while complimenting the overarching themes of the movie itself. That being said, Elvis has one several hair and makeup awards already and is the frontrunner going into Sunday.
Best International Feature Film
Who I Want to Win: All Quiet on The Western Front
Who I Think Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
This category was the biggest gap for me going into this weekend’s ceremony but there is a pretty good rule of thumb that applies here. If a movie is up for Best Picture and Best International Feature, it will win Best International Feature.
Best Short Film, Live Action
Who I Want to Win: An Irish Goodbye
Who I Think Will Win: An Irish Goodbye
Almost guaranteed to make you laugh and cry at the same time, ‘An Irish Goodbye’ has all the things that make oscar voters cheer. That, and it’s won more awards that all the other nominees combined.
Best Documentary, Short
Who I Want to Win: The Elephant Whisperers
Who I Think Will Win: Haulout
If you haven’t had a chance to watch either of these movies, you should certainly make time for them. Haulout feels more important as it shows us a strong visual representation of the effects of climate change and for that reason I feel like the voters will lean more in its direction.
Best Documentary, Feature
Who I Want to Win: Fire of Love
Who I Think Will Win: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Up until this point, both of these documentaries have won the same amount of awards and are neck-and-neck in ratings across multiple publications. All The Beauty and the Bloodshed seems to have a little more weight and relevance at this time and my hunch is that it wins on Sunday, but it truly is a coin toss.
Best Original Score
Who I Want to Win: The Fabelmans
Who I Think Will Win: Babylon
The real answer as to who I want to win this category would actually be Michael Giaccino’s score for ‘The Batman’ and I am absolutely befuddled that it didn’t even pull the nomination but here we are. Though I could see Jon Williams taking another Oscar home for The Fabelmans, there have been more indicators pointing towards Justin Hurwitz for Babylon.
Best Original Song
Who I Want to Win: “Naatu Naatu”
Who I Think Will Win: “Naatu Naatu”
Many were not happy when RRR wasn’t even considered for Best International Feature, so I see this as a way of the academy giving this movie something to go home with. Not to mention that the song is fantastic and fun.
Best Animated Feature
Who I Want to Win: Puss In Boot: The Last Wish
Who I Think Will Win: Pinnochio
The Last Wish may very well be the best movie in the Shrek franchise, but how does one compete with the gorgeous stop-motion animation given to us in Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio? The answer is “You Don’t” as this latest re-telling has won this exact category over 35 times this season.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Who I Want to Win: Women Talking
Who I Think Will Win: Women Talking
Women were shut out of many of the major categories this year and with this being one of the only opportunities to celebrate Sarah Polley, I think it’s likely that it happens.
Best Original Screenplay
Who I Want to Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Who I Think Will Win: The Banshees of Inisherin
Banshees was my 2nd favorite movie of the year and unfortunately, I think it will end up as the number 2 in many of the categories on Sunday, with the exception of this category which may be used as a consolation prize. With that in mind, it’s not out of the running yet for some of the other major awards.
Best Supporting Actor
Who I Want to Win: Ke Huy Quan
Who I Think Will Win: Ke Huy Quan
If Ke Huy Quan doesn’t win this award, we riot.
Best Supporting Actress
Who I Want to Win: Stephanie Hsu
Who I Think Will Win: Angela Bassett
Angela Bassett was the front runner for the longest time but over the last couple of weeks we have seen a few others take home the crown in this category. I ultimately think that Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu split the votes for fans of EEAAO and Angela Bassett does the thing and takes home the award.
Best Actor
Who I Want to Win: Colin Farrell
Who I Think Will Win: Brendan Fraser
Brendan has been taking home a lot of the trophies for this category and though the world seems to also love Austin Butler, I feel the academy will want to see more from him before casting their votes for him.
Best Actress
Who I Want to Win: Michelle Yeoh
Who I Think Will Win: Michell Yeoh
If you would have asked me this question two weeks ago, I would have told you that Cate Blanchett takes this award, but momentum seems to be swinging towards the star of Everything Everywhere All At Once. Not only would that win make history but it’s also well deserved.
Best Director
Who I Want to Win: Daniels
Who I Think Will Win: Daniels
It is not a given that the Director(s) of the Best Picture also win’s Best Director however it has happened 3 times in the last 5 years and as much as I don’t think The Academy ever though they would give the award to same folks who made a farting corpse movie, I think it happens here.
Best Picture
Who I Want to Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Who I Think Will Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Everything Everywhere All At Once had a huge impact on moviegoers over the last year and for a movie to come out in April to have stayed relevant is an achievement all its own, but there is something truly special about this feature, so much so that it has won 336 awards so far. If it doesn’t win, it will be a huge disappointment.